Ball State — 2026 schedule & results record 3-5 · model's picks 6-1 so far
Proj rating -18.4 · SOS -6.7 · Mean wins 3.4 · Picked 2-10 · Vegas 3.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Ohio State | away | L 3–56 | +50.75 ✗ | -46.3 | 0% | L ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Stony Brook | home | W 41–17 | -13.5 ✓ | +12.7 | 77% | W ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Liberty | away | L 15–51 | +14.5 ✗ | -12.7 | 23% | L ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Kent State | away | L 13–26 | +2.5 ✗ | -7.5 | 33% | L ✓ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | Toledo | home | L 24–39 | +20.75 ✓ | -19.4 | 13% | L ✓ |
Toledo -20 · LOSS -30 |
| 6 | Sat 10/10 | Northwestern | away | L 14–45 | +34.75 ✓ | -29.0 | 4% | L ✓ | |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | Bowling Green | away | W 32–31 | +6.25 ✓ | -8.5 | 31% | L ✗ | |
| 8 | Sat 10/24 | Sacramento State | home | W 34–17 | -14.5 ✓ | — | — | — | |
| 10 | Wed 11/04 | Massachusetts | away | — | — | +8.2 | 69% | W | |
| 11 | Wed 11/11 | Buffalo | home | — | — | -5.8 | 37% | L | |
| 12 | Tue 11/17 | Ohio | away | — | — | -16.7 | 16% | L | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | Central Michigan | home | — | — | -8.5 | 30% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.